Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in the UK? What the 2026 Data Says

"Is now a good time to buy?" is the most-asked question in UK property — and the most over-answered with vibes. Below is the answer the way it should be given: from the data, with every number linked to its source. In June 2026 those numbers tell a genuinely two-sided story, and which side matters most depends on where you're buying and what you can borrow.

Where house prices are heading

Start with the official index. The Office for National Statistics reported average UK house prices up 3.8% to £270,000 in the 12 months to April 2026 (ONS — Private rent and house prices, UK: June 2026). That's a notable re-acceleration — annual growth had been 0.0% in the year to March 2026, distorted by the stamp-duty changes that pulled activity forward into early 2025.

The national figure hides a wide regional split, confirmed in the same bulletin:

• North East: +9.9% — the strongest English region in the year to April 2026
• London: −2.1% — prices actually falling over the year
• Northern Ireland: +7.4% (Quarter 1 2026), among the strongest in the UK

So "are prices rising?" depends entirely on the map. They're climbing fastest in the North and Northern Ireland and falling in the capital.

The biggest lender's forecast points the same way. Nationwide notes annual growth slowed from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to 1.8% in November 2025, with Northern Ireland up around 11% and London the weakest at 1.3% over the first nine months of 2025, and expects annual house price growth to remain broadly in the 2 to 4% range across 2026 (Nationwide — house price review and outlook for 2026). Modest growth, not a boom — and not the crash some buyers are waiting for.

The cost of borrowing: base rate down, fixed rates back up

Here's where 2026 gets interesting. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in June 2026 — the fourth consecutive hold — with CPI inflation at 2.8% in the year to May 2026, still above the 2% target (Bank of England — Bank Rate; June 2026 Monetary Policy Summary). That 3.75% is well down from the peak of 5.25% the Bank held in 2023–24, which is the single biggest reason the market has thawed.

But the base rate is not your mortgage rate. Fixed rates price off expectations for future base-rate moves, and they rose through spring 2026 as a Middle East–linked energy shock revived inflation fears. By late June 2026 the average two- and five-year fixed rates were both around 5.5% (Moneyfacts) — having climbed sharply from the spring, when market turmoil briefly pushed two-year fixes above five-year fixes (Moneyfacts analysis). The Bank of England's own data shows the effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages at 4.08% in April 2026, up from 4.03% the month before (Bank of England — Money and Credit, April 2026).

The practical takeaway: don't assume "base rate is falling, so mortgages are getting cheaper." In mid-2026 the base rate is on hold and fixed deals nudged up. If you find a rate that makes the numbers work, locking it in has merit — and our mortgage affordability calculator shows exactly how a half-point rate move changes what you can borrow.

Is the market active or frozen?

Frozen markets are bad to buy into — thin transactions mean unreliable pricing and nervous sellers. The 2026 data says the market is active and recovering:

• HMRC recorded 101,030 seasonally adjusted residential transactions in April 2026 — up 53% on April 2025 (GOV.UK — UK monthly property transactions commentary). (That eye-catching annual jump is partly a base effect: April 2025 was unusually weak after the March 2025 stamp-duty rush, so read it as "back to normal volumes," not "boom.")
• Bank of England net mortgage approvals for house purchases reached 65,900 in April 2026 — the highest since January 2025 (Bank of England — Money and Credit, April 2026). Approvals are a forward indicator (they precede completions by a couple of months), so this points to continued activity into the summer.

Nationwide likewise notes mortgage approvals remained near pre-Covid levels through 2025. A market transacting at normal volumes is a healthier one to buy in than a frozen one — pricing is more reliable and chains are more likely to hold.

What surveyors are seeing right now

For the most current read on sentiment, the RICS UK Residential Market Survey is the best gauge — it asks chartered surveyors what's actually happening on the ground. Through spring 2026 it turned cautious:

• New buyer enquiries weakened to a net balance of −26% in February 2026, down from −15% in January (RICS — UK Residential Survey, February 2026).
• By May, the house-price net balance held at −35% for a second month, with surveyors flagging the most pronounced downward price pressure in the South East and East Anglia, while Northern Ireland continued to see firm price growth (RICS — UK Residential Survey, May 2026).

The important nuance: the near-term mood softened on the spring rate spike and geopolitical uncertainty, but the longer-term outlook stayed positive, with surveyors on balance still expecting sales activity to rise over the coming 12 months. That's consistent with the price and transaction data: a wobble, not a downturn.

The case for buying now vs. waiting

Put the data side by side and the trade-off is honest:

Reasons it's a reasonable time to buy: - Base rate is well off its peak (3.75% vs 5.25%), and low-deposit lending is wide open — the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme makes 5%-deposit purchases up to £600,000 permanently available (GOV.UK). - Transactions and approvals are back to roughly pre-pandemic levels — a liquid, navigable market. - In London and the South East, softening prices and weaker demand hand buyers genuine negotiating power.

Reasons to be patient: - Fixed mortgage rates rose in spring 2026 and sit around 5.5%, so monthly costs are higher than the falling base rate might suggest. - RICS sentiment is cautious near-term; in falling-price regions there may be no rush. - Affordability is still historically stretched (see our companion guide on how much deposit you need).

Notice that the two big levers — prices and rates — tend to move against each other. Prices usually only fall when borrowing is expensive; rates usually only fall when the economy (and prices) soften. Waiting for both to be favourable at once is how buyers spend years on the sidelines.

It's a regional question, not a national one

If there's one thing the 2026 data makes unavoidable, it's that "the UK housing market" barely exists as a single thing. In the year to April 2026, the North East rose 9.9% while London fell 2.1% — a 12-point spread in a single country (ONS). A buyer in Newcastle and a buyer in Wandsworth face opposite markets. "Is now a good time to buy?" can only really be answered street by street — which is exactly the level at which most national commentary fails.

You can see the real local picture, area by area, on our property price studies pages, built from HM Land Registry sold-price data.

The one thing you fully control: not overpaying

Here's the liberating part. You can't control the base rate, the ONS index, or what happens in the Middle East. You can control whether you pay the right price for the specific property in front of you — and in a softening, regionally-split market, that's where the money is made or lost.

Every £10,000 you overpay is locked in regardless of which way the market moves next. The honest first step before any offer is to know what the property is actually worth — not the asking price, not an agent's pitch.

That's what Offrly is for. Our free valuation uses regression-based pricing on photo-aware, micro-neighbourhood-aware comparables — the AI reads each comparable's photos (condition, garden, finish) the way a seasoned analyst would and resolves prices to the street, in about 30 seconds. No email required.

Run a free Offrly valuation → · Search for your next home with AI →

Before you offer, also read: - How to Negotiate a House Price in the UK - UK Stamp Duty in 2026: What Buyers Actually Pay - How Much Deposit Do You Need to Buy a House in 2026?

Sources

• ONS — Private rent and house prices, UK: June 2026 — average UK house price (£270,000, +3.8% to April 2026), and the regional split (North East +9.9%, London −2.1%, Northern Ireland +7.4%).
• Nationwide — house price review and outlook for 2026 — 2025 growth path, 2–4% forecast for 2026, mortgage approvals near pre-Covid levels.
• Bank of England — Bank Rate and June 2026 Monetary Policy Summary — Bank Rate held at 3.75%, CPI 2.8% in the year to May 2026.
• Bank of England — Money and Credit, April 2026 — net mortgage approvals of 65,900 (highest since January 2025) and the 4.08% effective rate on newly drawn mortgages.
• Moneyfacts — mortgage data and analysis of the spring 2026 rate move — average two- and five-year fixed rates around 5.5% by late June 2026.
• GOV.UK — UK monthly property transactions commentary — 101,030 seasonally adjusted residential transactions in April 2026, up 53% year on year.
• RICS — UK Residential Survey, February 2026 and May 2026 — buyer-demand and price net balances, and the regional sentiment split.
• GOV.UK — 2025 Mortgage Guarantee Scheme — permanent 5%-deposit lending support on homes up to £600,000.

Disclaimer: This article summarises UK housing-market data published as of June 2026, drawn from the linked primary sources. It is not financial, investment or mortgage advice, and nothing here is a forecast you should rely on for a purchase decision. Property values can fall as well as rise, and past trends don't predict future prices. Confirm rates and scheme eligibility with a regulated adviser. Offrly valuations are indicative market guidance, not regulated valuations — for mortgage, insurance or probate purposes, use a RICS-qualified surveyor.

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